Free NBA Fantasy Weekly Matchup Projections

How a week is projected

A win chance per category against this week's opponent.
Volume: each team's remaining NBA games this week, times the player's play rate over his team's last 10 games; an injury listing removes the games before his return.
FG% and FT%: made over attempted, sampled together, so a high-volume team carries a steadier percentage.
One correlated draw per team: points, threes and field goals move together, and a missed game removes every stat.
Swing: a category whose win chance sits between 35% and 65%.

Category Brier score 0.186, against 0.245 for a coin flip and 0.297 for a fixed-variance season simulator; lower is better.

Week-start projections for 30 replayed 12-team leagues on held-out 2025-26 weeks: predicted win chance against the share actually won.
Band	Predicted	Won	Category-weeks
Strong	89%	87%	6,010
Lean	69%	69%	8,772
Toss-up	50%	51%	10,635
Lean opponent	31%	32%	8,981
Strong opponent	10%	13%	6,102

Every game a rostered player plays counts: no daily lineup cap.
Rosters are held fixed for the rest of the week.
Teammates on the same NBA team are treated as independent.
A day-to-day tag is shown, not discounted.
A streamer is priced with the drop that costs the week least: the rostered player with the fewest expected games left.

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